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In this Explainer, find out...
Why did Singapore sign a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the US?
How does adopting nuclear energy benefit Singapore?
Are there drawbacks to integrating nuclear energy into our energy mix?
Introduction
On 31 July 2024, Singapore and the US penned a civil nuclear cooperation agreement during US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s two day visit to Singapore. Also known as a 123 Agreement, it marks a significant step forward in Singapore’s efforts to build nuclear expertise, paving the way for the potential adoption of nuclear energy in the near future. The agreement represents Singapore’s most recent effort to develop its nuclear energy capabilities.
This agreement builds on past government and academic efforts to develop Singapore’s domestic nuclear knowledge and expertise. Over the past decade, the Singapore Nuclear Research and Safety Initiative at the National University of Singapore (NUS) has actively contributed to this goal by awarding 30 scholarships for postgraduate studies in nuclear science and engineering. In 2022, the Energy Market Authority (EMA) commissioned a report to explore the feasibility of alternative energy sources for Singapore. The findings indicated that nuclear power could potentially meet about 10 per cent of the country’s energy needs by 2050.
What is the 123 Agreement About?
The 123 Agreement establishes a 30-year relationship between Singapore and the US concerning civil nuclear cooperation, allowing Singapore to gain access to expertise and research from American organisations on the advancement of nuclear technologies.
At present, current conventional nuclear technologies are incompatible with Singapore’s geography and resources, and requires further improvements in order for Singapore to consider the adoption of nuclear energy as a source of energy. As such, Singapore relies on such collaborations to enhance its own understanding of nuclear technologies in hopes of assessing Singapore’s potential for harnessing nuclear energy. This is a growing issue within the island nation, as it continues its search for low-carbon alternatives to natural gas, which constitutes 95 per cent of Singapore’s energy supply.
One of Singapore’s primary objectives in the exploration of nuclear technologies is the research on small modular reactors, which are smaller yet advanced versions of nuclear reactors. One of their advantages lie in its assembly in installation in remote locations where the establishment of large conventional nuclear reactors is infeasible. Such nuclear technologies bear the promise of simultaneously fulfilling Singapore’s climate goals while satisfying its crucial energy needs. However, these nuclear technologies are still nascent and have yet to be fully developed into scalable, operational and sustainable technologies ready for use. This has prompted Singapore to watch the emerging nuclear technology sector closely, with Singapore’s decision to enter into a 123 Agreement with the US reinforcing their interest in staying updated on new developments in nuclear technologies.
However, this agreement comes with a few caveats. Most importantly, in entering the 123 Agreement, Singapore had to agree with the nine non-proliferation criteria set out in Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act by the US. It acts as a safeguard against the misuse of information or resources obtained as a result of the agreement. Nevertheless, Singapore has remained committed to its stance of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. The alignment of Singapore’s stance with the United States’ facilitates the ease in collaboration.
Further, entering into a 123 Agreement with the US allows Singapore to engage in greater nuclear cooperation with nations operating under a similar 123 Agreement with the US. As of 2 July 2024, the United States has 24 such agreements in force that govern peaceful nuclear cooperation with 48 countries, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the governing authorities on Taiwan. This strengthens Singapore’s ability to participate in international collaboration regarding nuclear technologies, ensuring that Singapore has the capacity to pursue civil nuclear energy adoption if it so chooses.
How Can Nuclear Energy Adoption Benefit Singapore?
Nuclear energy has the potential to significantly advance global decarbonisation efforts. Unlike fossil fuels, nuclear power generates energy through nuclear fission, a process that does not emit greenhouse gases, making it a significant contributor to reducing global warming.
Historically, nuclear energy has demonstrated its potential to drive sustainable energy transitions, even before climate change became a prominent concern. France, for instance, relies on nuclear power for more than 70 per cent of its electricity needs, resulting in electricity sector emissions that are just one-sixth of the European average. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the deployment of nuclear power has prevented the release of over 60 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide over the past five decades — nearly two years’ worth of global energy-related emissions.
Drivers Behind Singapore's Energy Policy and Decarbonisation Goals
Singapore faces significant challenges in transitioning to alternative energy sources due to its industrial policy and geographic limitations. The country currently relies on industries like petrochemical refinery, which are major contributors to both its GDP and emissions. Singapore also lacks the necessary natural geographic features that make renewable energy generation from wind and hydropower possible.
Given Singapore’s limited land area, using small modular nuclear reactors is a highly viable option for the country’s future energy production. The waste generated by nuclear power is relatively small in volume and is subject to stringent management and regulation, including by international agencies such as the IAEA. In fact, the total amount of spent nuclear fuel produced to date globally could theoretically be contained within 42 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
Why Has Singapore Not Adopted Nuclear Energy?
Fear, Caution and Scepticism
Public opinion in Singapore regarding nuclear energy adoption has largely been sceptical and cautious. In 2018, the Singapore National Research Foundation commissioned a study of Singaporeans’ perceptions towards nuclear energy. The study revealed a general apprehension towards the risks involved, despite some participants reluctantly accepting the development of nuclear energy due to reasons such as economic necessity and self-sufficiency. The memory of catastrophic accidents like Chernobyl in 1986 and Fukushima in 2011 looms large. Singapore’s population density and small land size makes it no better; any nuclear incident can have severe consequences as nuclear reactors are likely to be situated near residential areas, heightening public fears about potential radiation leaks.
Another significant concern is the issue of nuclear waste disposal and storage. Nuclear waste remains hazardous for many years, ranging from tens to thousands of years. This necessitates safe, long-term storage solutions. Singapore’s limited land area complicates the challenge of finding appropriate sites for storing nuclear waste without endangering the surrounding environment, further contributing to public unease about the adoption of nuclear energy.
Environmental impact of nuclear energy
Climate change policies and the issue of climate justice often focus on decarbonisation and the reduction of carbon emissions or other greenhouse gases. However, other aspects of climate change such as the disruption of terrestrial and marine ecosystems are often overlooked.
One of the primary environmental impacts of nuclear power plants is the heat load on the sea from the cooling water, which is known as thermal pollution.
A case study of the Loviisa power plant in Finland shows that cooling water increases by about 10°C as it flows through the plant. Approximately two-thirds of the reactor’s thermal energy is then transferred into the sea. Temperature measurements indicate that the discharged water raises the sea temperature by 1-2.5°C within a 1-2 km radius of the discharge point.
If a nuclear power plant were to be introduced in Singapore, this heat load from cooling water will potentially have adverse effects on marine life if dumped into the ocean. Singapore sits on the edge of the coral triangle home to about 75 per cent of coral species and six of seven marine turtle species. The coral triangle is already under pressure from climate change; any decision to set up nuclear reactors must minimise its impact on the seas and marine diversity.
Supply Chain Resilience
When considering nuclear energy adoption, Singapore must also navigate several geopolitical challenges, particularly the concentration of uranium supply.
Kazakhstan currently holds a significant monopoly over global uranium production, which is the primary fuel used in nuclear reactors and thus a critical resource for nuclear power generation. Additionally, much of the world’s uranium supply is sourced from countries with unstable or non-democratic governments, such as Russia and Niger, which are prone to abrupt shifts in trade and foreign policy. This concentration raises concerns about the reliability and security of the uranium supply chain, especially considering how the Russo-Ukrainian war has laid bare the vulnerabilities of the energy supply chain.
Guarding against foreign lobbyists and influences
Singapore must also be cautious about the potential external influences that come with the 123 Agreement, ensuring that the nation does not become overly reliant on other countries for its domestic energy needs. Civil nuclear cooperation agreements under Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act, originally envisioned by President Eisenhower, were designed to extend U.S. influence globally while safeguarding against nuclear proliferation. However, agreements like those in India sparked concerns about increasing American influence over domestic policies.
Nearer to home, Indonesia has seen ongoing efforts to establish a nuclear power plant, with significant lobbying from foreign entities like the US-based Thorcon. However, according to experts, Indonesia does not need nuclear energy to decarbonize by 2050, as it has sufficient renewable resources. This serves as a cautionary tale for Singapore against foreign influence, especially entities with a stake in the nuclear energy supply chain. It is important that if the decision to adopt nuclear energy pushes through, it should be aligned with the informed consent of Singaporeans.
Conclusion
Recently, there has been an increase in calls for certainty regarding Singapore’s nuclear future. While nuclear energy offers a viable path for Singapore’s decarbonisation goals, it is important that any decision to adopt this technology be made with the full and informed consent of Singapore’s citizens. Public approval is crucial to ensure that the move aligns with the country’s values, addresses safety concerns, and reflects the long-term interests of the nation.
Singapore must prioritise transparency and consider the potential risks, benefits, and alternatives before integrating nuclear energy into its energy mix. Part of the consideration should be the impact of nuclear energy on the surrounding environment, which includes natural ecosystems. Nuclear energy can help achieve decarbonization goals, but it may also pose environmental risks in other ways, which should be carefully assessed before moving forward with its implementation.
Though Singapore has decided against committing to a strict timeline regarding nuclear adoption, the government’s response seems to remain the same: Singapore will continue to “keep its options open”.
This Policy Explainer was written by members of MAJU. MAJU is an independent, youth-led organisation that focuses on engaging Singaporean youths in a long-term research process to guide them in jointly formulating policy ideas of their own.
By sharing our unique youth perspectives, MAJU hopes to contribute to the policymaking discourse and future of Singapore.
The citations to our Policy Explainers can be found in the PDF appended to this webpage.
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